to the Symbol's Method  - 6

  THE SYMBOL'S METHOD - 7                          

  
2.5.- THE MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE CENTRE OF THE DIAGRAM.

Apart from the movements around the periphery, Edgeworth’s Box allows the projections of graphs towards the centre of the diagram. We will study here what these moves mean.

In the centre of Edgeworth’s Box (90 / 90.25) or (90.25 / 90), as well as in the centre of Hamilton’s Diagram (two arrows without orientation), we say that "pure chaos" reigns and, in contrast, in the periphery "order" reigns, because one of the two vectors remains static, without turning, and therefore movements and forecasts of movements are easier because periphery has less degrees of freedom than the centre of Diagram. Thus we can say that when we advance towards the periphery from the central chaos, order is born.

On the contrary, if we advance from periphery to the centre of the Diagram, we go from "order" to "chaos". This chaos is already patent when both coordinates are higher than 30º.

Indeed: the experience gathered over the months using the System of the Symbol shows that chaos is situated in a square which begins at 33 degrees of both coordinates and this happens in the two facing systems of coordinates which form the Edgeworth’s Box or, likewise, the two triangles (positive and negative) of the SS.


Figure 18   

The consequences are that is difficult to forecast when a graph is located inside this square of chaos. Fortunately, most graphs tend to project towards the periphery of the Diagram and also fortunately the fact of projecting into the square of chaos does not prevent making the analysis of the alterations of degrees of the Pushing up and Pulling down Forces in simulations performed by the System, which is the subject of the next section.
 

2.6.- THE TRUE VALUE OF THE SYMBOL METHOD. SIMULATIONS AND THEIR ANALYSIS.

The Symbol System allows to simulate rises and falls of graphs and also to calculate the Pushing up and Pulling down degrees which would act upon the graph if these simulations came true. In fact it always makes four simulations systematically.

In order to do so, it previously calculates the variability of graph. Variability of a graph is the average of percentages of variation of data values which make up the graph. In FINANFOR program this mean value is calculated based on the last 10 quotations and in CONSULTOR program, this mean is established based on whole set of data values.

In the calculus of the average of percent variations, or variability, it is taken much into account "not to prime falls", meaning that the way to calculate percents is not the same at rising than at falling.
For instance, if we pass from 100 to 110 we will rise a 10 %, but if from 110 we go down again to 100 we do not fall a 10 %, but less, because falls are produced with a bonus in respect to rises and this alters the averages of variation, and variability must not distinguish rises from falls but only variations.

With the variability calculation method of FINANFOR and CONSULTOR programs this does not happen as we recover the initial value and percentages are identical in both cases.

Once variability is calculated, the System uses it to perform two simulations at both rising and falling scenarios, in the following way:

A/ From the last value of the graph (present data) constructs other fictitious value of the future, deducting from the present a percentage indicated by the Variability and seeks again its new adjusting function. Once it has got it, it retains the angular coordinates belonging to the newly found adjusting function.

B/ It starts anew and goes back to the present value and constructs the fictitious future deducting from the present value two times the percentage of Variability and it searches again the adjusting function of the curve thus constructed. Once it has got it, retains the angular coordinates of the function thus found.

C/ It sets aside again all done before, goes back to the present value, but now it calculates the fictitious future adding to the present value the percentage of Variability and it searches again the adjusting function of the curve thus constructed. Once it has got it, retains the angular coordinates of the function thus found.

D/ Finally, it starts again and goes back to add two times the variability to the present value. It searches again the adjusting function of the curve thus constructed. Once it has got it, it keeps the angular coordinates of the function thus found.

We notice that at the end of A, B, C and D processes we will have 5 angular coordinates which will tell us:

  • The first, where the real graph is situated on Edgeworth’s Box.
  • The second, where the graph would be if it decreases a percent (Variability).
  • The third, where the graph would be if it decreases twice this percent.
  • The fourth, where the graph would be if it increases a percent (Variability).
  • The fifth, where the graph would be if it increases twice this percent.

It can naturally happen that the newly found functions are different, but it is also possible that some of them are equal than the original graph.

Imagine that the system tells us that if the curve increases a percent of its variability, function would be the same (same angular coordinates).

In this case the system is telling us that if we keep on acting in the same way the curve will rise.

Yet, if the curve decreases a variability percent and function is the same (same angular coordinates), then the system is telling that if we act in the same way the curve will fall.

If the angular coordinates are different, they will inform us on what to do to make the curve to rise (Cash-Flow, Sales) or to fall (Costs, Working capital).

Indeed: the angular coordinates of position are two, but one of these represents the Pushing up Force acting (current position) or going to act (future positions) over the graph and the other represents the Pulling down Force which also acts or will do so over the graph in each of the future cases, rising or falling.

The comparison between present coordinates and four possible futures will show us what should be done in each to make the simulation come true.

For example, imagine that from right to left we have on screen the following coordinates of a graph, which have a Variability = 5 %

150º

120º

90º

120º

120º

0.25º 15º 30º 20º 17º
(4) (3) (2) (1) (0)

(0) is the present situation, 120º of Pushing up Force and 17º of Pulling down Force, and the others are simulations, (1) first fall –5 %, (2) second fall –10%, (3) first rise +5%, and (4) second rise of the graph +10%.

If the curve is of Cash-Flow we will know that the Pushing up Force is the promotion of revenues and that the Pulling down Force reflects promotion of expenses and superfluous costs, taking into account that we consider as such those that once we have trimmed off (new organization, better suppliers) the company continues to work without any loss of its productivity.

Under these conditions and at the sight of the present situation and four simulations, the System informs as follows:

  • Present situation (0). The promotion of revenues is strong (120º), but wee have idle cost somewhere in the company (17º), as a company without idle costs has a Pulling down coordinate in 0,25º.

  • Comparison (0) (1). If we increase the idle costs the Cash-Flow will fall

  • Comparison (0) (2). If we increase the idle costs and reduce promotion the Cash-Flow will go further down.

  • Comparison (0) (3). If we reduce the idle costs the Cash Flow will go up.

  • Comparison (0) (4). To make the curve of Cash-Flow rising a 10 % we should increase promotion of revenues and reduce idle costs completely.

 
PRACTICAL CONCLUSION:

As passing from position (0) to position (4) is very complicated to work out (we are not able to find all superfluous costs), we select the pass from (0) to (3). The question now is in which proportion, related to the current costs, we should reduce them. The answer is what the CONSULTOR program indicates, because it calculates and gives the proportions, in percentages on the present, you must act on each Forces.

Based on this information of what to do in percents of efforts, an expert in the analysis of data released by CONSULTOR can also obtain the magnitude of total superfluous cost which the company currently pulls along.

Let us see now the case of being the FINANFOR program which, as we know, is dedicated to the analysis of Stock equities, what gives the angular coordinates detailed before.

In this case the System would tell us as follows:

  • Current situation (0). There is money (demand) but paper (supply) is excessive

  • Comparison (0) (1). If paper increases a little equity will go down.

  • Comparison (0) (2). If paper rises and money withdraws graph will fall further down.

  • Comparison (0) (3). If paper withdraws equity will rise but not firmly because is produced by withdrawal of paper.

  • Comparison (0) (4). If paper withdraws completely and at the same time money enters, rise could be the start of a swift one.

As we can see, if graph is of equities, we can not act to produce a rise, as who decides the actions to be taken is the totality of investors (the market). In this case it can only act "a posteriori", that is, wait and see where the market goes and purchase if equity’s value goes up 10% effectively, as we know from the System this will be qualitatively in a condition to go on rising. Yet, it is clear that we have lost the first rise, 10% in this example.
 

 
THE SYMBOL’S PHILOSOPHY

THE SYMBOL’S METHOD - 7

| Information | Welcome Screen | Main Menu |
| Disclaim | mail to the Symbol |