
to the Symbol's Method - 6
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THE SYMBOL'S METHOD - 7
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2.5.- THE MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE CENTRE
OF THE DIAGRAM.
Apart from the movements around the
periphery, Edgeworths Box allows the projections of graphs towards the centre of the
diagram. We will study here what these moves mean.
In the centre of Edgeworths Box (90 / 90.25) or (90.25 / 90), as
well as in the centre of Hamiltons Diagram (two arrows without orientation), we say
that "pure chaos" reigns and, in contrast, in the periphery "order"
reigns, because one of the two vectors remains static, without turning, and therefore
movements and forecasts of movements are easier because periphery has less degrees of
freedom than the centre of Diagram. Thus we can say that when we advance towards the
periphery from the central chaos, order is born.
On the contrary, if we advance from periphery to the centre of the
Diagram, we go from "order" to "chaos". This chaos is already patent
when both coordinates are higher than 30º.
Indeed: the experience gathered over the months using the System of the
Symbol shows that chaos is situated in a square which begins at 33 degrees
of both coordinates and this happens in the two facing systems of coordinates which form
the Edgeworths Box or, likewise, the two triangles (positive and negative) of the
SS.

Figure 18
The consequences are that is
difficult to forecast when a graph is located inside this square of chaos. Fortunately,
most graphs tend to project towards the periphery of the Diagram and also fortunately the
fact of projecting into the square of chaos does not prevent making the analysis of the
alterations of degrees of the Pushing up and Pulling down Forces in simulations performed
by the System, which is the subject of the next section.
2.6.- THE TRUE
VALUE OF THE SYMBOL METHOD. SIMULATIONS AND THEIR ANALYSIS.
The Symbol System allows to simulate rises and falls of graphs and also
to calculate the Pushing up and Pulling down degrees which would act upon the graph if
these simulations came true. In fact it always makes four simulations systematically.
In order to do so, it previously calculates the variability of graph.
Variability of a graph is the average of percentages of variation of data values which
make up the graph. In FINANFOR program this mean value is calculated
based on the last 10 quotations and in CONSULTOR program, this mean is
established based on whole set of data values.
In the calculus of the average of percent variations, or variability,
it is taken much into account "not to prime falls", meaning that the way to
calculate percents is not the same at rising than at falling.
For instance, if we pass from 100 to 110 we will rise a 10 %, but if from 110 we go down
again to 100 we do not fall a 10 %, but less, because falls are produced with a bonus in
respect to rises and this alters the averages of variation, and variability must not
distinguish rises from falls but only variations.
With the variability calculation method of FINANFOR
and CONSULTOR programs this does not happen as we recover the initial
value and percentages are identical in both cases.
Once variability is calculated, the System
uses it to perform two simulations at both rising and falling scenarios, in the following
way:
A/
From the last value of the graph (present data) constructs other fictitious value of the
future, deducting from the present a percentage indicated by the Variability and seeks
again its new adjusting function. Once it has got it, it retains the angular coordinates
belonging to the newly found adjusting function.
B/
It starts anew and goes back to the present value and constructs the fictitious future
deducting from the present value two times the percentage of Variability and it searches
again the adjusting function of the curve thus constructed. Once it has got it, retains
the angular coordinates of the function thus found.
C/ It sets aside again
all done before, goes back to the present value, but now it calculates the fictitious
future adding to the present value the percentage of Variability and it searches again the
adjusting function of the curve thus constructed. Once it has got it, retains the angular
coordinates of the function thus found.
D/ Finally, it starts
again and goes back to add two times the variability to the present value. It searches
again the adjusting function of the curve thus constructed. Once it has got it, it keeps
the angular coordinates of the function thus found.
We notice that at the end of A, B, C and D processes we will have 5
angular coordinates which will tell us:
- The first, where the real graph is situated on Edgeworths Box.
- The second, where the graph would be if it decreases a percent (Variability).
- The third, where the graph would be if it decreases twice this percent.
- The fourth, where the graph would be if it increases a percent (Variability).
- The fifth, where the graph would be if it increases twice this percent.
It can naturally happen that the newly found functions are different,
but it is also possible that some of them are equal than the original graph.
Imagine that the system tells us that if
the curve increases a percent of its variability, function would be the same (same angular
coordinates).
In this case the system is telling us that if we keep on acting in the
same way the curve will rise.
Yet, if the curve decreases a variability percent and function is the
same (same angular coordinates), then the system is telling that if we act in the same way
the curve will fall.
If the angular coordinates are different, they will inform us on what
to do to make the curve to rise (Cash-Flow, Sales) or to fall (Costs, Working capital).
Indeed: the angular coordinates of position are two, but one of these
represents the Pushing up Force acting (current position) or going to act (future
positions) over the graph and the other represents the Pulling down Force which also acts
or will do so over the graph in each of the future cases, rising or falling.
The comparison between present coordinates and four possible futures
will show us what should be done in each to make the simulation come true.
For example, imagine that from right to left we have on screen the
following coordinates of a graph, which have a Variability = 5 %
150º |
120º |
90º |
120º |
120º |
| 0.25º |
15º |
30º |
20º |
17º |
| (4) |
(3) |
(2) |
(1) |
(0) |
(0) is the present
situation, 120º of Pushing up Force and 17º of Pulling down Force, and the others are
simulations, (1) first fall 5 %, (2) second fall 10%, (3) first rise +5%, and
(4) second rise of the graph +10%.
If the curve is of Cash-Flow we will
know that the Pushing up Force is the promotion of revenues and that the Pulling down
Force reflects promotion of expenses and superfluous costs, taking into account that we
consider as such those that once we have trimmed off (new organization, better suppliers)
the company continues to work without any loss of its productivity.
Under these conditions and at the sight of the present situation and
four simulations, the System informs as follows:
Present situation (0). The promotion of revenues is strong (120º),
but wee have idle cost somewhere in the company (17º), as a company without idle costs
has a Pulling down coordinate in 0,25º.
Comparison (0) (1). If we increase the idle costs the Cash-Flow will
fall
Comparison (0) (2). If we increase the idle costs and reduce
promotion the Cash-Flow will go further down.
Comparison (0) (3). If we reduce the idle costs the Cash Flow will go
up.
- Comparison (0) (4). To make the curve of Cash-Flow rising a 10 % we should increase
promotion of revenues and reduce idle costs completely.
PRACTICAL CONCLUSION:
As passing from position (0) to
position (4) is very complicated to work out (we are not able to find all superfluous
costs), we select the pass from (0) to (3). The question now is in which proportion,
related to the current costs, we should reduce them. The answer is what the CONSULTOR
program indicates, because it calculates and gives the proportions, in percentages on the
present, you must act on each Forces.
Based on this information of what to do in percents of efforts, an
expert in the analysis of data released by CONSULTOR
can also obtain the magnitude of total superfluous cost which the company currently pulls
along.
Let us see now the case of being the FINANFOR
program which, as we know, is dedicated to the analysis of Stock equities, what gives the
angular coordinates detailed before.
In this case the System would tell us as follows:
Current situation (0). There is money (demand) but paper (supply) is
excessive
Comparison (0) (1). If paper increases a little equity will go down.
Comparison (0) (2). If paper rises and money withdraws graph will
fall further down.
Comparison (0) (3). If paper withdraws equity will rise but not
firmly because is produced by withdrawal of paper.
Comparison (0) (4). If paper withdraws completely and at the same
time money enters, rise could be the start of a swift one.
As we can see, if graph is of equities, we can not act to
produce a rise, as who decides the actions to be taken is the totality of investors (the
market). In this case it can only act "a posteriori", that is, wait and see
where the market goes and purchase if equitys value goes up 10% effectively, as we
know from the System this will be qualitatively in a condition to go on rising. Yet, it is
clear that we have lost the first rise, 10% in this example.
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