1.1.1- THE DIAGRAM OF HAMILTON. INTRODUCTION. When somebody tries to study the Stock Exchange Equities, and he/she is told that the Stock Exchange is a market and as such it is affected by supply and demand, they will commonly address the economic science, specifically the micro-economy, and try to delve into the laws of supply and demand. These laws which Mr. Alfred Marshall (1842-1924) so masterfully depicted, for the first time in his book "Elements of industrial economy" and later generalized in his magna opus "Principles of economy" (1890), which factually substituted as a text book for the training of economists, the treaty "Principles" by John Stuart Mill. In an outline, the graphs and diagrams which correspond to the law of
demand and to the law of supply are the following: LAW OF DEMAND LAW OF SUPPLY
Figure 1 Figure 2The graph which represents the LAW OF DEMAND tells us that if we have a determined item, a car for instance, which has a price, and we manage to manufacture the same item at a lower price, the potential demand will increase. This coincides with common sense, as a bigger segment of market will be able to accede to this item. Given that the price of the item is represented in the ordinates axis (axis Y) and the quantity demanded is represented in the abscises axis (axis X), the form which the graph takes is of a decreasing parabola, by which, lowering the price (descending the axis Y), the demanded quantity grows (the projection over the X axis slips to the right). Likewise, the graph which represents the LAW OF SUPPLY indicates that if we have a determined item which has a price and we artificially arise it, the supply of the item will then increase, that is, more competition will appear noticing the margins of that item. This also enters into what dictates the most strict laws of common sense. Here, the price of the item is also represented in the Y axis, but in this case, in the X axis, the quantity supplied of this item is represented, thus obtaining other parabola, but increasing this time, as going up by the Y axis increasing the price , the projection over the X axis should slip to the right (increase of quantity supplied). So far so good, but what Hamilton tried to explain was not entering in those curves by the Y axis, but do it by the X axis, that is, he aimed, as all the stock exchangers, to know the price through the demand existing in the market or to know the price in function of the existing supply in the market but here the problems arise with these graphs explained before. Indeed: The curve of the LAW OF DEMAND tells us that if demand increases, if we go to the right hand on the X axis , the price will go down and the curve of the LAW OF SUPPLY indicates that if supply increases, if we go to the right hand on the X axis , price will increase. In other words, if DEMAND INCREASES price FALLS, and if SUPPLY INCREASES price GOES UP. But these two events were not credible either by Hamilton or by anybody working in a market, because the truth is that if DEMAND INCREASES, price GOES UP and if SUPPLY INCREASES, price GOES DOWN, that is exactly the opposite of what the graphs of the law of supply and the law of demand tell us. How can this happen ? If we enter in these curves by the Y axis, it works and besides says what is common sense, but if in the same curves we enter by the X axis, it does not work but rather it goes against common sense. This explanation comes from the same
genesis of the laws of supply and demand. Remember that Alfred Marshall conceived them in
his first book "Elements of the economy of
industry" and in industry obviously, the first thing we fix is price
and then we wait for the demand and supply. Let us see the solution of Hamilton. 1.1.2- THE DIAGRAM OF HAMILTON. GENESIS. William Peter Hamilton passed away from pneumonia on December 9th 1929, at sixty three, in his home of Pierrepont Street, Brooklin. For 20 years he had been the director of the newspaper of greatest importance in the world, then and now, on finance and markets: The Wall Street Journal Hamilton was completely imbued of the working of markets (in fact he considered himself as the person who knew more about markets in the world). He had, moreover, to update them, as he inherited from Charles Dow, founder of the journal along with Edward D. Jones, the responsibility of writing daily, on the front page, the most important column on markets titled "Examination and perspectives" and he did so for 27 years. That column became a legend in the paper, as Dow initiated it on April 21st. 1898 three years before his death in 1902 , and it was the seed of the present technical analysis, but that column did not resist on the front page the demise of Hamilton, and was symbolically buried with him, inside the internal pages of the newspaper. Hamilton was also the real constructor of the Dow Theory from which the
Technical Analysis was born. The theory bears the founders name but it should really
have been Hamilton, who developed it twenty years after the death of Dow, putting into it
all his experiences and reflections on the analysis of markets and this has been
recognized by all the historians of the stock analysis, although the latest insights were
kept secret. Among the documentation destined to his column in the journal, it is
said that after his death, the famous diagrams created as an alternative to
Marshalls laws of supply and demand, along with a wealth of notes and tips on their
applications and how they work were found. Note.- In Spain, in 1989 and a month before of the
opening of the continuous market (which began in April with five equities) the journal EXPANSIÓN published a course on Hamiltons Diagrams every
Monday for 12 weeks in a row. |
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